Russia’s population is decreasing quite rapidly. WSJ says:
At least 150,000 Russians are dead on the battlefield, according to Western estimates. Nearly a million fled the country after the war began. The number of births is at its lowest in more than two decades, with bigger-than-average drops in babies born in some regions closest to the fight.
In 2024 Putin promised to spend a whopping $157B. over 6 years, to encourage more baby-making. As we have seen in many other countries, typically incentives are never sufficient to reverse the trend.
Even before the Ukraine war, roughly 300,000 people emigrated from Russia each year. I would not be surprised if Russia finds (unfair) ways to stem that.
And Russia has another issue that most countries don’t have – men drinking themselves to death. They are dying 10+ years younger than Western countries