The Decline is Near
While we tend to look at averages and global totals, the reality is the population decline is going to be very lumpy. After we reach peak global population, Africa will still grow for a while. Even though Japan peaked ages ago and there are empty houses everywhere, Tokyo is still growing and houses are being …
Continue reading “Internal Migration Will Worsen Population Decline”
The data is lumpy and uneven, and every country is on their own journey. However, the global trend is unmistakeable: downward. The underlying data is here, also the source of the graph https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/charted-the-global-decline-of-fertility-rates/
Here are some very basic statistics, to give you an idea of why we are on a journey towards too few children, below the replacement rate of 2.1 per woman: Globally the fertility rate has dropped from 5 to 2.4 (children per woman) between 1970 and 2016. In high income countries it is already below …
Most people are aware of how declining fertility rates, and longer life spans, means that demographics of advanced economies is trending towards more older people. Japan is the common example of where it is currently a problem, but it will be a global issue to content with later this century. A figure from a study …
When we see major drops in birth rates over a short period of time it will triggered by something – most recently the Global Financial Crisis, and currently the pandemic. The curious thing is that the new rate gets locked in, even when the initial cause dissipates. Between 1980 and 2007, U.S. birth rates stayed …
