Nobody wants to be the poster child for population decline. Losing 11% in 10 years is serious. Enough for people to extrapolate that to think they could lose 100% in a century. Bulgaria’s population shrunk more than 11 percent over the past decade, according to its latest census, as the Eastern European country struggles to …
Author Archives: Rob Skelton
How Much Decline = Permanent Recession?
One of the reasons this website exists is that the detrimental effects of population decline on capitalism haven’t been acknowledged yet. While it has long been known that increasing the population is good for the economy, it is rare for someone to put a value on it. Recently the WSJ reported: Historically, nearly half of …
Desperation in China: Loans Offered
Jilin in northeast China is offering married couples bank loans of up to 200,000 yuan ($31,400) if they have kids, joining other provinces in the roll-out of financial incentives to overcome a declining population. Certain small businesses set up by couples with two or three children will also enjoy exemptions and cuts in value-added taxes, …
China Has Shadow-Banned Vasectomies
China is becoming increasingly desperate to reverse the decline in birth rates, which is now lower than that of Japan. Allowing people to have more than one child hasn’t been enough, because, as we have seen in other lands, once people get used to having fewer kids, it tends to become entrenched. It is quite …
U.S. Birthrate Declines
The U.S. birthrate has declined for the 6th year in a row, because of changing attitudes towards having children. Pew Research Center did a survey of 3,866 women aged 18-49 and men aged 18-59 and asked them: “Thinking about the future, how likely is it that you will have children someday?” In 2021, only 26 …
China’s Birthrate: New Low
Predictions for populations from places like the United Nations, don’t account for accelerating change, as we see in China currently. Latest inducements are not helping, and fewer people are marrying: Figures released by the country’s national bureau of statistics show there were 8.5 births per 1,000 people in 2020, the first time in decades that …
India: Below Replacement Rate
Most people would be surprised to know that in recent years India has only been slightly above the nominal replacement rate of 2.1 – and now it is below that: India’s most recent National Family Health Survey, which is conducted every five years by the Health Ministry, was released Wednesday and showed the total fertility rate …
Low Birth Rates Become Fixed
When we see major drops in birth rates over a short period of time it will triggered by something – most recently the Global Financial Crisis, and currently the pandemic. The curious thing is that the new rate gets locked in, even when the initial cause dissipates. Between 1980 and 2007, U.S. birth rates stayed …
Blame the Lefties
Thinking of the US, I am confident that I don’t need to look up the facts regarding which side of political persuasion has the most kids. That this opinion comes from a “hillbilly” makes sense. The author turned Ohio Senate candidate JD Vance has blamed America’s woes on “the childless left”, singling out Vice-President Kamala Harris, transportation …
China’s Plan – Group Weddings
In my opinion, China will one day shift from weak, ineffective attempts to increase fertility, to harsh, ineffective policies. I don’t think their way of running things is conducive to the gentle but nuanced encouragement that is required. For example: In Chongqing, one of China’s biggest cities, engaged couples will soon be eligible for a …