Peak Population

In my opinion, China will one day shift from weak, ineffective attempts to increase fertility, to harsh, ineffective policies. I don’t think their way of running things is conducive to the gentle but nuanced encouragement that is required.

For example:

In Chongqing, one of China’s biggest cities, engaged couples will soon be eligible for a government-sponsored group wedding, according to a three-year “wedding-customs reform” pilot announced last week. The catch is that extravagances — and certain ancient marriage traditions — will be officially frowned upon.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-06/why-xi-wants-cheaper-weddings-for-china

It kinda makes sense because the cost of weddings is seen to be a hindrance, but you would expect that if people really wanted marriage and kids, they would find a way.

Another initiative is committees who negotiate bride prices lower…

I can’t imagine that the decline is related to a growing middle class and the increased rights of women, which are the typical reasons, still:

The fertility rate in Iran has been declining over the past eight years, the lowest of which was related to the past [Iranian calendar] year (March 2019-March 2020) with a birth rate of 1.2, according to the data published by the Statistics Center.

Nicholas Eberstadt, the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) wrote in an article in July 2020 that the fertility rate in Iran has dropped by 70 percent over the past 30 years, which has been the highest decline in human history.
https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/463759/Iran-s-population-on-upward-trend-till-2040-UN-predicts

The UN’s lowest prediction (my preference as they are very conservative) is that the population of Iran will stop growing within 20 years, and drop from 82 million to 42 million by 2100. That is 1% per year.

Iran is seemingly putting a lot of effort into reversing this, like “health insurance for infertile couples, providing services and facilities to working women, providing health and nutrition support packages to mothers and children, educational opportunities for student mothers, providing livelihood support to families, and ongoing medical services to pregnant women.” All good.

But also some policies less acceptable to the west, like reducing the age of marriage, and “employees with three to five children will be promoted”.

Net migration is slightly below zero, which of course could change, and meanwhile war can be a factor in the region. An economic reliance on fossil fuels doesn’t bode well in the long term. Basically their outcome appears to be far fewer people and a much greater reduction in income.

While globally we won’t be able to avoid population decline, individual countries will keep on making easy (immigration) and difficult (encouraging births) paths towards growth. Without economic growth, there is apparently doom. And with population growth comes a rise in GDP.

Korea, like Japan, is notoriously an anti-immigration monoculture. Any actual immigrants or resident foreign workers are not treated well.

Surprisingly (to me), Korea has been using foreign labour in a very odd and archaic way:

South Korea’s population began to shrink for the first time last year. It’s an omen of things to come. Like people in other developed economies, South Koreans are having fewer babies and their society is aging. One solution would be to allow greater immigration, and that would require changes in how non-Korean workers are seen and treated.

…Cambodian migrant, Khen Srey Nuon, has been living in a shed inside a greenhouse. “The water here freezes in winter. My room is also usually freezing. It’s difficult to live in. My employer gives me drinking water, but it’s not so clean, so I have to buy my own.”

In December, a Cambodian migrant worker was found dead in the greenhouse where she was living. After that, the government stopped issuing employment permits to employers who housed workers in greenhouses. But Kim Yi-chan says South Korea’s system remains stacked against the migrants and is basically a form of modern-day slavery.

…The approximate age of the people working in the fields right now is over 70. And once they reach 75 or older, it will be hard for them to remain in the workforce.

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/30/1001684760/new-immigration-policy-could-be-the-solution-to-south-koreas-population-decline

Until I read that last line, I thought this was terrible, literally slavery. But for elderly people to suffer such conditions, that makes it worse still.

Also, this:

South Korea is now being slammed by Amnesty International for a number of abuses afflicting its migrant-dominated agriculture sector.

The 20,000 foreign workers fuelling South Korea’s farming industry regularly encounter intimidation, violence, excessive working hours, forced labour and no rest days, according to an Amnesty report released yesterday. And because of a “flawed” work permit scheme, the migrants have few options for recourse.
https://www.phnompenhpost.com/national/s-korean-farming-industry-slammed

With such an attitude towards foreign workers, South Korea (and presumably Japan) will really struggle with population decline and will likely be the countries that show us first what that looks like economically.